[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 230532
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  68A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

...TROPICAL STORM IVAN IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-ORGANIZED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
IVAN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY IN
SQUALLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

WATER LEVELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING .5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IVAN WILL GENERATE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THESE EXISTING WATER LEVELS.
THEREFORE... WATER ELEVATIONS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...27.7N... 90.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
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