[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 222302
SPFAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

28.5N  93.0W      44  X  X  X 44   FREEPORT TX       18 12  1  X 31
30.0N  95.0W      14 19  1  X 34   PORT O CONNOR TX   7 13  1  1 22
30.5N  95.5W       7 23  1  X 31   CORPUSCHRISTI TX   1  6  3  3 13
MMSO 238N 982W     X  X  X  2  2   BROWNSVILLE TX     X  X  2  4  6
PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2
MOBILE AL          X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 89W      44  X  X  X 44
GULFPORT MS        1  1  1  3  6   GULF 28N 91W      67  X  X  X 67
BURAS LA           8  2  1  1 12   GULF 28N 93W      47  X  X  X 47
NEW ORLEANS LA     8  4  1  1 14   GULF 28N 95W      21  6  X  1 28
NEW IBERIA LA     19  5  1  X 25   GULF 27N 96W       5  6  1  2 14
PORT ARTHUR TX    20 13  1  X 34   GULF 25N 96W       X  X  1  3  4
GALVESTON TX      22 12  X  X 34

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM THU TO  1AM FRI
C FROM  1AM FRI TO  1PM FRI
D FROM  1PM FRI TO  1PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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