[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 222029
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. VISIBLE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY SHOWED A LARGE EYE BUT THIS IS NOW
BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED. KARL SHOULD DECAY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

KARL HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
020/14...AND A GENERAL MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
KARL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2-3 DAYS. AFTERTHAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL TURN EASTWARD WITH THE
HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS...UKMET...GFDL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/2100Z 28.2N  48.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.1N  47.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 33.7N  44.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 38.7N  42.9W    75 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 44.0N  42.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 53.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 60.0N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/1800Z...NEAR GREENWICH MERIDIAN


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