[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 221428
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCLUDE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM
SAB...AND 80 KT FROM A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT FROM UW/CIMSS...AND THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
REMNANT OF AN INNER EYEWALL WITH A LARGER OUTER EYEWALL.  AS THE
INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...BUT NOW THAT KARL IS BEGINNING RECURVATURE WITH AN
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH
CONTRACTION OR STRENGTHENING OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.  KARL SHOULD
DECAY ONLY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY
SHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/12.  KARL IS SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  AFTER
THAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL
TURN EASTWARD WITH THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT TO
CARRY THE FORECAST OUT TO 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/1500Z 26.9N  49.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 28.9N  48.5W    85 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 32.0N  46.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 36.5N  43.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 42.0N  42.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  40.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 59.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/1200Z 65.0N  18.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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