[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 210303
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/02. JEANNE HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE EAST AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS FORECAST BY THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS. THE
OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THAT THE BASIC STEERING FLOW
WOULD COLLAPSE AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES
EASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AND
BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

JEANNE APPEARS TO BE IN A QUASI-STEADY STATE AS FAR AS THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS CONCERNED...NOT HAVING A COMPLETE CLOSED EYE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AGAIN 55 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...ALSO
SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE.  HOWEVER OUR CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS RECON WHICH WAS 75 KTS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KTS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND THAT GUIDANCE IS THE BASIS FOR THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0300Z 27.4N  70.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 27.4N  70.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 27.3N  69.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 26.7N  69.4W    80 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 26.3N  69.7W    85 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  70.2W    85 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 27.3N  70.1W    75 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z 28.0N  69.0W    60 KT


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