[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 202048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/06. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON
FIX POSITIONS...ALONG WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE JEANNE HAS FINALLY MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
...AND MAY EVEN BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE
GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE IN
24-48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES
EASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE
AND BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE
SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

JEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND THE
INNER-CORE REGION HAS BECOME TIGHTER. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RECON REPORTS INDICATE A 20-30
NMI CLOSED EYE. A 20/2003Z RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 93 KT AT 5000
FT AND A 983 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INTENSITY
TO 75 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/2100Z 27.4N  71.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 27.6N  70.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 27.7N  69.9W    85 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 27.6N  69.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 27.2N  68.8W    75 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N  69.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 27.0N  69.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     25/1800Z 28.0N  68.0W    55 KT


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