[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 200254
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...THE SAME RIDGE
THAT IS MOVING KARL. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. BASED UPON THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. THIS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

TD THIRTEEN IS EXHIBITING VERY COLD TOP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AND INTERMITTENTLY IN A BAND WITHIN 160 NM TO ITS NW. THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST THE
PREVIOUS 6 HOURS AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
2.0...JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
NOW FOLLOWING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...
THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS... ALLOWING FOR
STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM.  AFTER THIS TIME THE SHEAR
INCREASES...ALTHOUGH...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE/JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 13.2N  34.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 13.5N  35.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 13.7N  37.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.9N  38.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N  39.9W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.8N  42.9W    55 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.3N  45.6W    55 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N  48.6W    55 KT


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