[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT72 KNHC 200232
SPFAT2
HURRICANE KARL PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  45.1 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST WED SEP 22 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.2N  48.2W      48  X  X  X 48   22.8N  50.3W       2 22  3  1 28
20.7N  49.5W      27  8  X  X 35

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
C FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
D FROM  8PM TUE TO  8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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