[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 192046
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
HURRICANE KARL IS WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND
SPEED BY 20 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE...ONLY INCREASING THE WIND TO 45
KT.  THIS IS BASED ON THE SUGGESTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE
OUTFLOW FROM KARL IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DEPRESSIONS CONVECTION AND MAY HAVE AN INHIBITING EFFECT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOT
REPRESENTED WELL IN THE GFS AND IN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS.  THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE KARL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 13.3N  33.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 13.6N  34.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 14.6N  37.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.8N  39.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.1N  41.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N  44.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N  46.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 25.0N  48.0W    40 KT


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