[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 182033
SPFAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

24.1N  72.6W      68  X  X  X 68   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  2  2
25.7N  72.5W      30  5  X  X 35   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2
27.0N  72.5W       7 16  2  1 26   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2
MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  2  2   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2
MBJT 215N 712W    99  X  X  X 99   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2
MYMM 224N 730W    99  X  X  X 99   CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  3  3
MYSM 241N 745W    26  2  1  X 29   MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  4  4
MYEG 235N 758W     2  6  2  1 11   WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  4  4
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  2  2  4   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X  X  4  4
MYNN 251N 775W     X  1  3  2  6   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  X  3  3
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1  4  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
C FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
D FROM  2PM MON TO  2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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