[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 172026
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KARL THIS
AFTERNOON.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ALL CONVERGING ON T3.5 AND I WILL
HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 55 KT.  KARL RETAINS
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS
STRONG ANTICYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  WHILE KARL MARKS
TIME OVER WARM WATERS IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 320/12...AS KARL HAS BEEN EXECUTING AN
UNEXPECTED RIGHT TURN TODAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 850 NM NORTH OF KARL...WHICH MIGHT ACCOUNT
FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THERE IS STILL A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...SO I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE
BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL KARL
APPROACHES A LARGE AND POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AT THAT TIME KARL SHOULD BE STEERED
NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/2100Z 13.4N  36.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N  37.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.3N  39.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.3N  40.4W    85 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.2N  41.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  44.5W   100 KT
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  46.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     22/1800Z 29.5N  46.0W    95 KT


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net