[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 162034
SPFAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  58
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

35.6N  84.3W      41  X  X  X 41   MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  2  6  4 12
36.3N  82.2W      15  7  1  1 24   CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  1  4  5 10
36.3N  80.5W       2 14  2  1 19   NORFOLK VA         X  1  6  4 11
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  4  4  8
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  2  4  6
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  1  3  4   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  1  3  4
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  2  3  5   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X  2  2
SAVANNAH GA        1  3  3  3 10   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  2  2
CHARLESTON SC      1  6  3  3 13   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  7  3  4 14   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  3  3
WILMINGTON NC      X  5  5  3 13   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM FRI TO  1AM SAT
C FROM  1AM SAT TO  1PM SAT
D FROM  1PM SAT TO  1PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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