[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 161445
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

IVAN IS MOVING 010/12 ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA.  WHILE IT IS
WEAKENING...A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA INDICATES
THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT GETS FARTHER
INLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY 24 HR.  THEY SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.

DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN
WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 72 HR.
BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.

STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY...AND THE
THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS IVAN WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE REMAINS A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL TODAY.
THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/1500Z 32.0N  87.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 33.6N  86.9W    50 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 35.2N  85.7W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 36.5N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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