[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 160939 CCA
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ700-
750-755-770-775-161200-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
525 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WEST TO
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND FROM
APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND GADSDEN...LEON AND LIBERTY COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT (1000 AM
CDT) FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST...OR ABOUT
40 MILES NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 115 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE AS IVAN MOVES FURTHER
INLAND. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. MANY SCHOOLS...BUSINESSES...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICES WILL BE
CLOSED TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE
LATEST CLOSINGS...STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY 5 TO 10 INCHES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH LOCAL 3 TO 6
INCH AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS...
AND NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM
FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT RIVER AND
KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS MOSTLY MISSED
THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA
RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW. IVAN WILL BE
ARRIVING WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER
BASIN. THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES. HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING BASINS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE C TOWER 15 MILES SOUTH OF ST GEORGE ISLAND IS
REPORTING WINDS OF 42 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 48 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE GULF
BUOYS HAVE OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
45 KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT SOME INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS...
CEDAR KEY...24 MPH...GUSTS 29 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...22 MPH...GUSTS 26 MPH.
SHELL POINT...21 MPH...GUSTS 29 MPH.
TALLAHASSEE...18 MPH...GUSTS 30 MPH.
APALACHICOLA...30 MPH...GUSTS 39 MPH.
DOTHAN...26 MPH...GUSTS 37 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS HURRICANE IVAN WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL
STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. ON
THIS TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
WILL AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...AND 4 TO 7 FEET
EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IVAN
MOVES FURTHER INLAND TODAY.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
LOW TIDE...933 AM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1152 PM.
LOW TIDE...702 AM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM.
LOW TIDE...1146 AM AND 1156 PM.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...510 PM.
LOW TIDE...1024 AM AND 1034 PM.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...441 PM.
LOW TIDE...1015 AM AND 1024 PM.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...405 PM.
LOW TIDE...953 AM AND 1002 PM.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...408 PM.
LOW TIDE...956 AM AND 1005 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND LARGE
SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 800 AM EDT.

$$

MAJ

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