[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 160531
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ700-
750-755-770-775-160800-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
131 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WEST TO
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND FROM
APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND GADSDEN...LEON AND LIBERTY COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM
EDT (200 AM CDT) FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM EDT (1200 AM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST...OR ABOUT
40 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR
HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. IN ADDITION...MANY SCHOOLS...BUSINESSES...STATE AND COUNTY
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION
RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS...STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY 5 TO 10 INCHES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF IVAN OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
WITH LOCAL 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN
ADDITION...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON
THE FLINT RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM
FRANCIS MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...
APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LOW. IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT RISES.
HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING BASINS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY
IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE C TOWER 15 MILES SOUTH OF ST GEORGE ISLAND IS
REPORTING WINDS OF 42 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 48 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE GULF
BUOYS HAVE OBSERVED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT A FEW INLAND AND COASTAL LOCATIONS...
CEDAR KEY...24 MPH...GUSTS 29 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...20 MPH...GUSTS 24 MPH.
SHELL POINT...25 MPH...GUSTS 44 MPH.
TALLAHASSEE...23 MPH...GUSTS 28 MPH.
PANAMA CITY...26 MPH...GUSTS 43 MPH.
DOTHAN...23 MPH...GUSTS 31 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE LANDFALL OF IVAN IN THE VICINITY OF
MOBILE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. ON THIS TRACK...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS
MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS...
AND THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...THE INLAND
PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...

SURGES WILL RISE TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...
AND 6 TO 8 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES OF 20 TO 30 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. STORM SURGES AND
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS IVAN MOVES FURTHER INLAND TODAY.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM.
LOW TIDE...933 AM.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM.
LOW TIDE...702 AM.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM.
LOW TIDE...1224 PM AND 1156 PM.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM.
LOW TIDE...1024 AM AND 1034 PM.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM.
LOW TIDE...1015 AM AND 1024 PM.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM.
LOW TIDE...953 AM AND 1002 PM.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM.
LOW TIDE...956 AM AND 1005 PM.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED WAVE ACTION AND LARGE
SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 330 AM EDT.

$$

MAJ

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