[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 160138
HLSTLH
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ700-
750-755-770-775-160430-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WEST TO
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...AND FROM
APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...AND GADSDEN...LEON AND LIBERTY COUNTIES OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM
EDT (200 AM CDT) FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 900 PM EDT (800 PM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST...OR ABOUT
85 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR
HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. IN ADDITION...MANY SCHOOLS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE CLOSED
ON THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST
CLOSINGS...STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG
BEND. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCALLY 5 TO 10 INCHES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH LOCAL 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS
FURTHER EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND NEAR CREEKS
AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS WEEK. RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS.
RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...
CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE
FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW. IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING WHILE FLOWS ARE
STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL REQUIRE
CLOSE MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE WINDS AT THE C TOWER 15 MILES SOUTH OF ST GEORGE
ISLAND IS REPORTING WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 51 KNOTS. THE
OFFSHORE GULF BUOYS HAVE OBSERVED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT A FEW COASTAL SITES...
CEDAR KEY...20 MPH...GUSTS 22 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...20 MPH...GUSTS 24 MPH.
SHELL POINT...19 MPH...GUSTS 34 MPH.
APALACHICOLA...22 MPH...GUSTS 35 MPH.
PANAMA CITY...22 MPH...GUSTS 37 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE LANDFALL OF IVAN IN THE VICINITY OF
MOBILE BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. ON THIS
TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SPREADING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DURING THIS TIME. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER RAIN BANDS. PANAMA CITY CAN EXPECT 15 TO 20 HOURS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...DOTHAN CAN EXPECT AROUND 15 HOURS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND TALLAHASSEE CAN EXPECT AROUND SEVEN
HOURS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND WESTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...

THE STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 6 TO 8 FEET WEST OF ST GEORGE
ISLAND...AND 4 TO 6 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND TONIGHT. SURGES
WILL RISE TO AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET WEST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND...AND 6 TO
8 FEET EAST OF ST GEORGE ISLAND THURSDAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES OF 20 TO 30 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF ST
GEORGE ISLAND.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...859 PM THIS EVENING AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...702 AM THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1134 PM TONIGHT...1224 PM AND 1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1012 PM TONIGHT...1024 AM AND 1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...958 PM THIS EVENING...1015 AM AND 1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...936 PM THIS EVENING...953 AM AND 1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...939 PM THIS EVENING...956 AM AND 1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED WAVE
ACTION AND LARGE SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 1130 PM EDT (1030 PM CDT).

$$

MAJ
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