[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 152041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  54
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE VERY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE
OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING.  AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 290 MILES.  SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION
WERE RECENTLY CLOCKED AT 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH.  A BUOY
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND REPORTED 50 FT SEAS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS  933 MB...27.55 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N... 88.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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