[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 151535
HLSTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-151800-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1036 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA WEST TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND
FROM APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COUNTIES OF
GADSDEN...LEON AND LIBERTY. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT (10 AM CDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT
235 SOUTH OF MOBILE. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 238 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A MAJOR HURRICANE...AS A CATEGORY THREE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME SCHOOL CLOSINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ANNOUNCED.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE SHORTLY WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IVAN OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE EAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS...AND NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN
STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT
RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS
MOSTLY MISSED THE CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...
APALACHICOLA... AND CHIPOLA RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LOW. OF SPECIAL CONCERN IS THAT IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING
WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS
WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE WINDS AT THE C TOWER...100 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE...15 MILES SOUTH OF ST. GEORGE ISLAND ARE 34 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS. AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA WINDS ARE 33 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 47 KNOTS...AND AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY...WINDS
ARE 33 GUSTING TO 47 KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT A FEW OTHER COASTAL SITES...
CEDAR KEY...19 MPH...GUSTS TO 22 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...18 MPH...GUSTS TO 22 MPH.
APALACHICOLA...20 MPH...GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
PANAMA CITY...18 MPH...GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
DESTIN...17 MPH...GUSTS TO 24 MPH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE LANDFALL OF IVAN JUST EAST OF MOBILE
BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. ON THIS TRACK... TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING OVER THE
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND DURING THIS TIME. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
IN THE OUTER BANDS OF IVAN...BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH AS
WELL.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE COAST...AS
WELL AS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 4
TO 6 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
IVAN...EXCEPT 5 TO 7 FEET OVER COASTAL WALTON COUNTY. IF IVAN TRACKS
FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER STORM SURGES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...859 PM THIS EVENING AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...628 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND 702 AM THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1134 PM TONIGHT...1224 AM AND 1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1012 PM TONIGHT...1024 AM AND 1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...958 PM THIS EVENING...1015 AM AND 1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...936 PM THIS EVENING...953 AM AND 1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...939 PM THIS EVENING...956 AM AND 1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO BATTERING WAVES AND
BUILDING SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE...FLORIDA AROUND 3 PM EDT (2 PM CDT).

$$

24-BLOCK


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