[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 151441
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 15 2004

...JEANNE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABREERA SOUTHWARD TO
ISLA SAONA.  A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ARE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABRERA TO PUERTO PLATA.  A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

AT 11 AM AST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JEANNE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  65.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES...  75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.  THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM WEST OF ST. CROIX.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF JEANNE OVER PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY SUSTAINED AT HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.  THERE WAS AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM ST.
CROIX OF A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 300 FEET DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF JEANNE.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  ST. CROIX
HAS REPORTED 7 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR DURING JEANNE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.8 N... 65.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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