[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 150920
HLSTLH
FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GMZ700-750-755-770-775-151330-

HURRICANE IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
520 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM APALACHICOLA
FLORIDA WEST TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA EAST TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND
FROM APALACHICOLA EAST TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND THEN SOUTH TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA FROM 5 PM CDT TODAY UNTIL 7 PM CDT
THURSDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 AM CDT (5 AM EDT)...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.8 WEST OR ABOUT
220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS
IS ALSO ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. IVAN
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY
THREE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MANDATORY EVACUATION HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME SCHOOL CLOSINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ANNOUNCED.

FOR ADDITIONAL EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND THE LATEST CLOSINGS
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND/OR RADIO STATIONS.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF IVAN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE EAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND NEAR SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS
GENERATED ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS ON THE FLINT RIVER AND KINCHAFOONEE AND
MUCKALEE CREEKS. RAINFALL FROM FRANCIS MOSTLY MISSED THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE...PEA...CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...AND CHIPOLA
RIVER BASINS...WHERE FLOWS ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW. OF SPECIAL
CONCERN IS THAT IVAN WILL BE ARRIVING WHILE FLOWS ARE STILL
RELATIVELY HIGH ON THE FLINT RIVER BASIN. THIS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE
MONITORING AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
RISES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE FOLLOWING BASINS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED BY IVAN.

IN ALABAMA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVER BASINS.

IN GEORGIA...THE FLINT RIVER...KINCHAFOONEE CREEK...AND MUCKALEE
CREEK.

IN FLORIDA...THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA...AND
OCHLOCKONEE RIVERS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CURRENTLY...THE WINDS AT TOWER C 15 MILES SOUTH OF ST. GEORGE ISLAND
IS REPORTING WINDS OF 33 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 38 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE
BUOYS HAVE OBSERVED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
KNOTS.

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS AT A FEW COASTAL SITES...
CEDAR KEY...23 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH.
KEATON BEACH...16 MPH...GUSTS 18 MPH.
SHELL POINT...9 MPH...GUSTS 14 MPH.
PANAMA CITY...13 MPH.
DESTIN...13 MPH...GUSTS 25 MPH.

THE FORECAST HAS LANDFALL NEAR MOBILE BAY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE. ON THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE GULF COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
SPREADING OVER THE PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND COASTAL PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DURING THIS TIME.

...TORNADO THREAT...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IVAN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE COAST...AS
WELL AS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST...ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5
TO 7 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST FOR IVAN.
AN EVEN HIGHER SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS EXPECTED IN SOME OF THE
BAYS...INCLUDING WEST BAY AND NORTH BAY. IF IVAN TRACKS FURTHER EAST
THAN ANTICIPATED...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER STORM SURGES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

EAST PASS NEAR DESTIN...
HIGH TIDE...1236 AM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...859 PM THIS EVENING AND 933 AM THURSDAY.

SAINT ANDREW BAY NEAR PANAMA CITY...
HIGH TIDE...1206 AM AND 1152 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...628 PM THIS AFTERNO0N...AND 702 AM THURSDAY.

APALACHICOLA...
HIGH TIDE...524 AM AND 608 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1134 PM TONIGHT...1224 AM AND 1156 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT GEORGE ISLAND AT SIKES CUT...
HIGH TIDE...426 AM AND 510 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...1012 PM TONIGHT...1024 AM AND 1034 PM THURSDAY.

OCHLOCKONEE BAY...
HIGH TIDE...416 AM AND 441 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...958 PM THIS EVENING...1015 AM AND 1024 PM THURSDAY.

SHELL POINT...
HIGH TIDE...340 AM AND 405 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...936 PM THIS EVENING...953 AM AND 1002 PM THURSDAY.

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
HIGH TIDE...343 AM AND 408 PM THURSDAY.
LOW TIDE...939 PM THIS EVENING...956 AM AND 1005 PM THURSDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEACHES DUE TO INCREASED WAVE
ACTION AND BUILDING SWELLS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE...FLORIDA AROUND 8 AM CDT (9 AM
EDT).

$$

12-WATSON

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