[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 150232
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  7PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

28.6N  88.2W      43  X  X  X 43   APALACHICOLA FL    3  6  3  3 15
30.6N  88.2W      18 12  X  1 31   PANAMA CITY FL     7  7  2  2 18
32.6N  87.6W       1 16  6  1 24   PENSACOLA FL      16  9  1  1 27
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   MOBILE AL         16 14  X  1 31
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  3  3   GULFPORT MS       19 12  X  X 31
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   BURAS LA          27  4  1  X 32
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  6  6   NEW ORLEANS LA    13 12  X  1 26
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  5  5   NEW IBERIA LA      2  9  1  1 13
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  1  2  3
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       5  4  3  2 14
VENICE FL          X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 87W      30  1  X  X 31
TAMPA FL           X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 89W      44  X  X  X 44
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 91W      14  4  X  X 18
ST MARKS FL        1  2  4  5 12   GULF 28N 93W       1  1  X  1  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  7PM WED TO  7AM THU
C FROM  7AM THU TO  7PM THU
D FROM  7PM THU TO  7PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  7PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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