[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 142028
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

27.2N  88.0W      40  X  X  X 40   PANAMA CITY FL     X 11  5  2 18
29.3N  88.3W       8 22  X  X 30   PENSACOLA FL       X 20  3  1 24
31.5N  88.0W       X 15  8  1 24   MOBILE AL          X 22  3  1 26
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  2  2   GULFPORT MS        1 23  2  X 26
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  3  3   BURAS LA           4 22  X  1 27
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  1  5  6   NEW ORLEANS LA     1 19  2  X 22
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  6  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  7  5  1 13
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  4  4   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  1  3  4
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  2  2
WILMINGTON NC      X  X  X  2  2   GULF 29N 85W       1  9  3  2 15
VENICE FL          X  X  1  1  2   GULF 29N 87W       9 17  1  X 27
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  3  4   GULF 28N 89W      26  6  X  X 32
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  2  4  6   GULF 28N 91W       5 10  1  X 16
ST MARKS FL        X  2  6  4 12   GULF 28N 93W       X  1  1  1  3
APALACHICOLA FL    X  7  6  2 15

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1PM WED TO  1AM THU
C FROM  1AM THU TO  1PM THU
D FROM  1PM THU TO  1PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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