[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 140236
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE THAT TD-11
STILL HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS.  SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND UW CIMSS
ANALYZED SATELLITE WINDS SHOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF WNW SHEAR ON THE
SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR AT 60-72 HOUR. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER THIS TIME AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
SCENARIO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. TD-11 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
LARGE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. A PORTION OF THIS SAME RIDGE IS WEDGED
BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN AND IS FORECAST BY MOST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER ABOUT 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY IVAN.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0300Z 16.2N  61.2W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N  62.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N  64.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.4N  66.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N  67.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N  69.6W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.7N  71.3W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 24.8N  73.0W    70 KT


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