[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT71 KNHC 140234
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  61.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM AST THU SEP 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

17.5N  64.6W      53  X  X  X 53   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  1  8  9
18.4N  66.3W       8 31  X  X 39   MTPP 186N 724W     X  X  X  8  8
19.3N  67.5W       X 24  7  X 31   MTCA 183N 738W     X  X  X  3  3
TFFF 146N 610W     2  X  X  X  2   MUGM 200N 751W     X  X  X  2  2
TDPR 153N 614W    99  X  X  X 99   TJSJ 184N 661W    12 28  X  1 41
80400 157N 636W   40  X  X  1 41   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  5 13 18
TFFR 163N 615W    99  X  X  X 99   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  2 15 17
TAPA 171N 618W    90  X  X  X 90   MYMM 224N 730W     X  X  X 10 10
TKPK 173N 627W    83  X  X  X 83   MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  X  4  4
TNCM 181N 631W    57  1  X  X 58   MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  X  2  2
TISX 177N 648W    51  X  X  X 51   ST CROIX VI       51  X  X  X 51
TIST 183N 650W    42  4  X  X 46   ST THOMAS VI      42  4  X  X 46
TJPS 180N 666W     6 30  1  X 37   SAN JUAN PR       12 28  X  1 41
MDSD 185N 697W     X  1 12  6 19   PONCE PR           6 30  1  X 37

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
C FROM  8AM WED TO  8PM WED
D FROM  8PM WED TO  8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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