[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 140232
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  85.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

24.8N  87.3W      40  X  X  X 40   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  9  7 16
26.6N  88.2W      10 18  X  1 29   MOBILE AL          X  1 10  6 17
28.5N  88.5W       X 15  6  1 22   GULFPORT MS        X  1 12  5 18
MUAN 219N 850W    99  X  X  X 99   BURAS LA           X  7 11  2 20
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  2  2   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  3 12  3 18
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3   NEW IBERIA LA      X  1 10  5 16
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  4  4   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  4  6 10
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  5  5   GALVESTON TX       X  X  2  5  7
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  4  4   FREEPORT TX        X  X  1  4  5
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  2  2   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  2  2
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 85W       X  1  7  5 13
FT MYERS FL        X  X  1  2  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  6  9  3 18
VENICE FL          X  X  2  3  5   GULF 28N 89W       X 19  4  1 24
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  5  6   GULF 28N 91W       X 11  6  2 19
CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  6  7   GULF 28N 93W       X  2  5  4 11
ST MARKS FL        X  X  2  8 10   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  1  3  4
APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  5  7 12   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  2  2
PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  6  8 14

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM TUE TO  8AM WED
C FROM  8AM WED TO  8PM WED
D FROM  8PM WED TO  8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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