[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 140007
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST MON SEP 13 2004

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND
ST. MARTEEN...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD ALSO AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEN LESSER ANTILLES TO THE NORTH OF GUADELOUPE.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
60.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR GUADELOUPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER OR
NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N... 60.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH

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