[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 130840
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

22.5N  86.0W      40  X  X  X 40   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  7  8
24.2N  87.1W       7 21  X  1 29   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  9 10
26.0N  87.5W       X 15  7  1 23   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  2 10 12
MUSN 216N 826W    33  X  X  X 33   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2 11 13
MUHA 230N 824W     4  3  1  1  9   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  2 12 14
MUAN 219N 850W    56  X  X  X 56   MOBILE AL          X  X  2 12 14
MMCZ 205N 869W    21  X  X  X 21   GULFPORT MS        X  X  3 11 14
MMMD 210N 897W     1  2  X  1  4   BURAS LA           X  X  7  9 16
MARATHON FL        X  X  1  3  4   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  4 10 14
MIAMI FL           X  X  X  3  3   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  2 10 12
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  3  3   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  7  7
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  3  3   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  6  6
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  3  3   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  5  5
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  4  4   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  3  3
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  5  5   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  3 10 13
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  8  8 16
KEY WEST FL        X  1  2  2  5   GULF 28N 89W       X  1 13  5 19
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  1  5  6   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  9  6 15
FT MYERS FL        X  X  1  5  6   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  3  7 10
VENICE FL          X  X  2  6  8   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  5  5
TAMPA FL           X  X  1  7  8   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
C FROM  2PM TUE TO  2AM WED
D FROM  2AM WED TO  2AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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