[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 130236
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

22.3N  85.0W      40  X  X  X 40   TAMPA FL           X  X  2  8 10
23.9N  85.9W       6 21  1  X 28   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  9 10
25.8N  86.5W       X 12  9  2 23   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1 10 11
MWCG 193N 814W    13  X  X  1 14   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  2 11 13
MUCF 221N 805W     X  1  X  1  2   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2 11 13
MUSN 216N 826W    39  X  X  X 39   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  1 12 13
MUHA 230N 824W    11  3  1  X 15   MOBILE AL          X  X  1 12 13
MUAN 219N 850W    46  X  X  X 46   GULFPORT MS        X  X  2 11 13
MMCZ 205N 869W    15  X  X  X 15   BURAS LA           X  X  4 10 14
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  2  2   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  2 11 13
MARATHON FL        X  1  2  3  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  1  9 10
MIAMI FL           X  X  1  3  4   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  6  6
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  4  4   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  4  4
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  5  5   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  3  3
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  5  5   PORT O CONNOR TX   X  X  X  2  2
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  3 11 14
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  6 10 16
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  4  4   GULF 28N 89W       X  X 11  6 17
CHARLESTON SC      X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  6  7 13
KEY WEST FL        X  2  4  3  9   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  1  7  8
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  3  5  8   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  3  3
FT MYERS FL        X  X  3  6  9   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  2  2
VENICE FL          X  X  3  7 10

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM MON TO  8AM TUE
C FROM  8AM TUE TO  8PM TUE
D FROM  8PM TUE TO  8PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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