[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 122043
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

21.3N  84.7W      40  X  X  X 40   VENICE FL          X  X  5  7 12
23.1N  85.5W       3 24  X  1 28   TAMPA FL           X  X  3  8 11
25.4N  86.0W       X  8 14  2 24   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1  9 10
MWCG 193N 814W    99  X  X  X 99   ST MARKS FL        X  X  1  9 10
MUCF 221N 805W     1  1  1  2  5   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  2 10 12
MUSN 216N 826W    26  1  X  X 27   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  2 10 12
MUHA 230N 824W     5  9  1  1 16   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  1 11 12
MUAN 219N 850W    30  2  X  1 33   MOBILE AL          X  X  1 10 11
MMCZ 205N 869W    18  3  X  X 21   GULFPORT MS        X  X  1 10 11
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  3  3   BURAS LA           X  X  2 10 12
MMMD 210N 897W     X  3  1  1  5   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  1  9 10
MARATHON FL        X  1  4  4  9   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  8  8
MIAMI FL           X  X  2  5  7   PORT ARTHUR TX     X  X  X  4  4
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  1  5  6   GALVESTON TX       X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  5  6   FREEPORT TX        X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  4 10 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  5 10 15
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  7  8 15
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  3  3   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  3  8 11
KEY WEST FL        X  3  6  3 12   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  1  6  7
MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  5  6 11   GULF 28N 95W       X  X  X  3  3
FT MYERS FL        X  X  5  6 11   GULF 27N 96W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
C FROM  2AM TUE TO  2PM TUE
D FROM  2PM TUE TO  2PM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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