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WTNT34 KNHC 121756
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN LASHES GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.1 WEST OR ABOUT   60 MILES...
95 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN END OF CUBA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  922 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN.  COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
THE CAYMAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATE THAT POWER IS OUT
THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND...NUMEROUS BUILDINGS HAVE LOST THEIR
ROOFS...WATER UP TO 2 FEET DEEP COVERS THE AIRPORT RUNWAY...AND
WATER AS HIGH AS 5 FEET IS FLOWING THROUGH MANY HOMES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N... 82.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 922 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


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