[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 120849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN THREATENS GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.8 WEST OR ABOUT   55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER...OR VERY NEAR...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS IS CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  918 MB...27.11 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN.  COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 80.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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