[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 120839
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.6N  83.0W      46  X  X  X 46   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  2  7  5 14
22.2N  84.1W      16 16  X  X 32   FT MYERS FL        X  1  7  6 14
23.9N  84.8W       X 20  5  1 26   VENICE FL          X  X  7  8 15
MWCG 193N 814W    99  X  X  X 99   TAMPA FL           X  X  4 10 14
MUCF 221N 805W    10  2  X  1 13   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1 12 13
MUSN 216N 826W    35  1  X  X 36   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X 13 13
MUHA 230N 824W    10 13  1  X 24   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  1 14 15
MUAN 219N 850W     9 19  1  X 29   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X 15 15
MMCZ 205N 869W     1 10  1  1 13   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X 14 14
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  2  2   MOBILE AL          X  X  X 12 12
MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  2  1  3   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X 11 11
MARATHON FL        X  6  4  2 12   BURAS LA           X  X  X 11 11
MIAMI FL           X  1  3  4  8   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  8  8
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2  4  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  6  7   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  2 15 17
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  6  7   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  1 16 17
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  7  7   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  1 12 13
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  6  6
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2   GULF 28N 93W       X  X  X  2  2
KEY WEST FL        X 10  4  2 16

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
C FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
D FROM  2AM TUE TO  2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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