[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 120226
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.3N  82.4W      47  X  X  X 47   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  7  7 14
21.6N  83.7W      20 12  X  X 32   FT MYERS FL        X  X  5  8 13
23.3N  84.5W       X 21  5  1 27   VENICE FL          X  X  4 10 14
MWCG 193N 814W    64  X  X  X 64   TAMPA FL           X  X  1 11 12
MUCF 221N 805W    13  3  X  1 17   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X 11 11
MUSN 216N 826W    30  3  1  X 34   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X 11 11
MUHA 230N 824W     5 17  1  1 24   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X 14 14
MUAN 219N 850W     3 23  1  X 27   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X 13 13
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  8  3  1 12   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X 12 12
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  2  2   MOBILE AL          X  X  X 10 10
MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  1  1  2   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  9  9
MARATHON FL        X  3  6  4 13   BURAS LA           X  X  X 10 10
MIAMI FL           X  X  3  5  8   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  7  7
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  1  5  6   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  3  3
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X 15 15
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  6  6   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X 15 15
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  6  6   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X 13 13
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  5  5   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  6  6
KEY WEST FL        X  6  8  3 17

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
C FROM  8AM MON TO  8PM MON
D FROM  8PM MON TO  8PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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