[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 112035
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.3 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

20.0N  82.0W      48  X  X  X 48   KEY WEST FL        X  8  8  3 19
21.5N  83.1W      16 16  X  X 32   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  1  8  6 15
23.1N  84.0W       X 20  6  1 27   FT MYERS FL        X  X  7  8 15
MKJS 185N 779W    37  X  X  X 37   VENICE FL          X  X  5 10 15
MWCG 193N 814W    58  X  X  X 58   TAMPA FL           X  X  2 11 13
MUCF 221N 805W    12  6  1  1 20   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  1 11 12
MUSN 216N 826W    20 12  X  X 32   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X 11 11
MUHA 230N 824W     2 21  2  1 26   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W     X 20  3  1 24   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X 12 12
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  4  4  2 10   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X 10 10
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  4  4   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  8  8
MMMD 210N 897W     X  X  X  2  2   GULFPORT MS        X  X  X  7  7
MARATHON FL        X  5  7  4 16   BURAS LA           X  X  X  8  8
MIAMI FL           X  X  5  5 10   NEW ORLEANS LA     X  X  X  5  5
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2  6  8   NEW IBERIA LA      X  X  X  2  2
FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1  7  8   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  1 13 14
COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  1  6  7   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X 13 13
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  7  7   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X 11 11
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  6  6   GULF 28N 91W       X  X  X  5  5
SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
C FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
D FROM  2PM MON TO  2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net