[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 111757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT 11 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE IVAN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 78.7W OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AND 190
MILES...305 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AT 11/1500 UTC
MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 155 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT IVAN CONTINUES TO
BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP
CONVECTION. AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W IS DISRUPTING THE OUTFLOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED ELSEWHERE.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
77W-82W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 14N-21N
BETWEEN 74W-82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF
21N MOVING W 10-15 KT.   SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 22W-25W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS BROAD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG
61W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 17N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 60W-63W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 15N10W 9N30W 12N47W 13N61W 11N70W
13N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 16W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 31N82W 26N90W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LAYERS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N82W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 79W-86W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 16N-24N
BETWEEN 88W-97W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 92W-98W.

CARIBBEAN...
THE MAJOR FEATURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE IVAN WHICH IS
JUST W OF JAMAICA.  ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS AFFECT W HAITI...SE
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER IVAN WITH AN E/W RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N88W
18N79W 15N60W.   A SMALL POCKET OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W AND IVAN
FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 63W-70W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N45W.
A 1020 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 26N32W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N76W.  LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER NE NEAR
29N64W.  CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FROM 24N-36N BETWEEN 55W-72W.
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N50W.  A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 40N17W
30N30W 28N40W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ON THE SURFACE TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PROVIDING MOISTURE OVER
THE TROPICS ALONG 25W...AND 47W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PAIR
OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOTED.  A LARGE ONE IS OVER W
AFRICA NEAR 26N14W WITH COVERAGE FROM 2N-30N BETWEEN
1W-35W...AND A SECOND SMALLER ONE IS NEAR 17N46W THAT EXTENDS
FROM 2N-25N BETWEEN 40W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA



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