[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 110559
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN POUNDING JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.  THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.  HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL CUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN
FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  77.3 WEST OR ABOUT   50 MILES...
75 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

THE EYE HAS WOBBLED TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE WOBBLE
TOWARD THE WEST APPEARS TO HAVE KEPT THE EYE AND VERY STRONGEST
WINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...BUT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
AFFECTING JAMAICA AT THIS TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 77.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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