[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 110234
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN NEARING JAMAICA...COULD REACH
CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.  THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.  HURRICANE
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.9 WEST OR ABOUT   35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE
ON FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION WILL BRING
THE EYE OF IVAN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE EYE WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS
BEFORE THE EYE REACHES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.  AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS INDICATE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS OVER LARGE PARTS OF JAMAICA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 76.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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