[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 110232
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

19.3N  79.1W      47  X  X  X 47   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  1 10 11
20.4N  80.4W      23  8  1  X 32   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X 10 10
21.8N  81.5W       1 20  4  1 26   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  8  8
MKJP 179N 768W    99  X  X  X 99   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  5  5
MKJS 185N 779W    73  X  X  X 73   SAVANNAH GA        X  X  X  2  2
MWCG 193N 814W    17  7  1  X 25   KEY WEST FL        X  1 13  7 21
MUCM 214N 779W    15  5  X  X 20   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  5 12 17
MUCF 221N 805W     1 21  2  1 25   FT MYERS FL        X  X  2 14 16
MUSN 216N 826W     X 15  7  2 24   VENICE FL          X  X  1 15 16
MUHA 230N 824W     X  6 14  3 23   TAMPA FL           X  X  X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W     X  1  9  6 16   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X 11 11
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  2  3  5   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  8  8
MYEG 235N 758W     X  1  X  2  3   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  9  9
MYAK 241N 776W     X  2  4  3  9   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  7  7
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  3  4  7   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1  7  8   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  2  2
MARATHON FL        X  1 12  6 19   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X 10 10
MIAMI FL           X  X  6  9 15   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  7  7
W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  2 10 12   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
C FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
D FROM  8PM SUN TO  8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


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