[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 102349
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  34A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...CORRECT INITIAL POSITION...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 75
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED
TERRAIN.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5
STATUS AS IT PASSES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.3 N... 76.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 926 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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