[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 102033
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  76.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

18.8N  78.7W      48  X  X  X 48   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  1 11 12
19.9N  79.8W      26  7  X  X 33   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X 11 11
21.3N  81.1W       1 19  7  X 27   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  9  9
MKJP 179N 768W    99  X  X  X 99   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  8  8
MKJS 185N 779W    58  X  X  X 58   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  5  5
MWCG 193N 814W     8 13  2  X 23   KEY WEST FL        X  X 10 10 20
MUGM 200N 751W     1  1  X  X  2   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  2 15 17
MUCM 214N 779W     9 10  1  X 20   FT MYERS FL        X  X  1 14 15
MUCF 221N 805W     X 15 10  1 26   VENICE FL          X  X  X 15 15
MUSN 216N 826W     X  6 15  2 23   TAMPA FL           X  X  X 13 13
MUHA 230N 824W     X  1 17  4 22   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X 10 10
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  6  8 14   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  7  7
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  1  3  4   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  8  8
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  1  3  4   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  6  6
MYAK 241N 776W     X  1  4  5 10   PENSACOLA FL       X  X  X  3  3
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  2  6  8   MOBILE AL          X  X  X  2  2
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  1  8  9   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  9  9
MARATHON FL        X  X  9 10 19   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  6  6
MIAMI FL           X  X  3 12 15   GULF 28N 89W       X  X  X  3  3

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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