[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 101450
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN GRADUALLY APPROACHING JAMAICA...EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  75.1 WEST OR ABOUT  155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 75.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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