[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 101143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI 10 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN AT 12/1200Z...WAS NEAR 16.3N 74.7W
OR ABOUT 165 MILES/270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 11 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
125 KT GUSTS 155 KT. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AND
IVAN COULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER AS IT NEARS JAMAICA. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REACHES 16N83W TO THE WEST...WESTERN
CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST...AND CURVES TO 26N66W TO THE NORTHEAST.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS FEATURE...COVER THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
IVAN...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. OTHER CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 12.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W...AND FROM 18N
TO 21N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W OCCURRING IN INTERIOR AND COASTAL
AREAS OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DISSIPATING WITH TIME...ARE IN PARTS OF
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND PANAMA COASTAL WATERS FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 71W AND 83W...POSSIBLY ALSO RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE EYE
STANDS OUT CLEARLY ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N
TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...
WITH SOME POSSIBLE LEFT-OVER SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 30W AND 44W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DISSIPATING WITH
TIME...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W/98W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 101W AND 104W...MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 13N16W 9N30W 11N52W 12N70W...TO 10N76W 9N84W 10N89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 21N BETWEEN 10W AND 26W...
AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF 24N110W 21N104W 23N93W
30N85W 32N80W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES... INTO EASTERN TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 98W...FROM MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST
OF 90W SOUTH OF 23N98W 33N80W LINE...MIXING WITH SOME OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH.
WEAK NORTHERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W. SURFACE COLD
FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 85W TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST AND TO WEST TEXAS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR LINE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN CENTER NEAR 15.9N 74.2W OR ABOUT
225 MILES/360 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT GUSTS 155 KT.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N52W.
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 20N TO 35N BETWEEN 45W AND 63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST
OF THE 31N52W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR...NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IVAN OUTFLOW WEST OF 60W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
14N30W 24N21W 33N19W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ALONG
17N/18N AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DRIFTS
WEST. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE IS PRODUCING DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OVER A GOOD PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SAVE THE FAR EASTERN ATLC
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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