[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 100821
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  74.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST MON SEP 13 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

18.0N  77.4W      47  X  X  X 47   MARATHON FL        X  X  3 14 17
19.1N  78.9W      22 11  X  X 33   MIAMI FL           X  X  1 12 13
20.4N  80.2W       X 21  5  1 27   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X 11 11
MTCA 183N 738W    13  X  X  X 13   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  9  9
MKJP 179N 768W    53  X  X  X 53   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  7  7
MKJS 185N 779W    41  X  X  X 41   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  5  5
MWCG 193N 814W     X 15  5  2 22   JACKSONVILLE FL    X  X  X  3  3
MUGM 200N 751W     9  3  X  X 12   KEY WEST FL        X  X  3 15 18
MUCM 214N 779W     1 15  4  1 21   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X 14 14
MUCF 221N 805W     X  4 16  3 23   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X 13 13
MUSN 216N 826W     X  1 13  6 20   VENICE FL          X  X  X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  9 11 20   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  9  9
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  2 10 12   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  6  6
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  X  4  4   ST MARKS FL        X  X  X  3  3
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  2  3  5   APALACHICOLA FL    X  X  X  4  4
MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  4  7 11   PANAMA CITY FL     X  X  X  3  3
MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  7  8   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  5  5
MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  8  8   GULF 29N 87W       X  X  X  2  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
C FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
D FROM  2AM SUN TO  2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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