[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 100618 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI 10 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN AT 11 PM AST...0600Z..WAS NEAR
15.7N 73.8W OR ABOUT 250 MILES/405 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT/150 MPH/
240 KM/HR...GUSTS 160 KT. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS AS IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REACHES
16N82W TO THE WEST...AND CURVES TO 26N67W TO THE NORTHEAST.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THIS FEATURE...COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W. REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N41W 26N44W
20N53W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO
17N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. OTHER CELLS OF ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS OF CENTER IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 51W AND 56W.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN SIDE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 10N20W 6N35W 11N50W 12N70W 8N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN
35W AND 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF 21N18W 13N23W
5N29W...NORTH OF 5N TO AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR NORTH OF 24N108W 23N98W 30N86W
33N80W. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES... INTO EASTERN TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
NORTH OF 24N WEST OF 98W...FROM MEXICO TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF 90W SOUTH
OF 23N98W 33N80W LINE...MIXING WITH SOME OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH. WEAK
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 24N WEST OF 90W. SURFACE COLD FRONT
FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN ALAMBAMA/THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA...ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO EAST TEXAS/THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
AREA...WITH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 29N83W 25N90W 20N98W...SIMILAR TO THE LINE OF MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IVAN CENTER NEAR 15.5N 73.3W OR ABOUT
290 MILES/465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT/150 MPH/240 KM/HR...GUSTS
160 KT.

THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N52W.
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 20N TO 35N BETWEEN 45W AND 63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N41W 26N44W 20N53W.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 31N52W MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...EMBEDDED
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IVAN
OUTFLOW WEST OF 60W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WITHIN
200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N30W 24N21W 33N19W.

THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ALONG
17N/18N AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DRIFTS
WEST. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE IS PRODUCING DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
OVER A GOOD PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SAVE THE FAR EASTERN ATLC
NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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