[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 092037
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES AS A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...INCREASINGLY REMOVED
FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER 200 NM AWAY AND SPREADING OVER
THE AZORES. SINCE THE LOW LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SWIRL ARE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY
EXIST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER. THE WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SUB 26C WATER.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE LOW CENTER HAS TURNED TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A MOTION THAT WAS EXPECTED BUT NOT SO SOON. OF
THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...ONLY THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE
ON THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE AZORES...BUT THEY APPARENTLY HAVEN'T
NOTICED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY SHEARED OFF.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...OR IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM MET OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT21 EGRR.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/2100Z 35.8N  33.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 35.2N  33.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 34.5N  32.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 34.0N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 33.5N  30.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1800Z...REMNANT LOW


$$This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net