[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT74 KNHC 092030
SPFAT4
HURRICANE IVAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  72.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST SUN SEP 12 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

17.5N  76.2W      47  X  X  X 47   MYAK 241N 776W     X  X  5  6 11
18.8N  78.0W      11 22  X  1 34   MYNN 251N 775W     X  X  1  7  8
19.7N  79.3W       X 23  3  1 27   MYGF 266N 787W     X  X  X  6  6
MTPP 186N 724W     3  X  X  X  3   MARATHON FL        X  X  2 13 15
MTCA 183N 738W    28  X  X  1 29   MIAMI FL           X  X  X 11 11
MKJP 179N 768W    39  2  X  X 41   W PALM BEACH FL    X  X  X  8  8
MKJS 185N 779W    16 18  X  X 34   FT PIERCE FL       X  X  X  6  6
MWCG 193N 814W     X  5 10  5 20   COCOA BEACH FL     X  X  X  4  4
MUGM 200N 751W     8 11  X  1 20   DAYTONA BEACH FL   X  X  X  2  2
MUCM 214N 779W     X 14  6  2 22   KEY WEST FL        X  X  1 14 15
MUCF 221N 805W     X  1 14  6 21   MARCO ISLAND FL    X  X  X 11 11
MUSN 216N 826W     X  X  7 11 18   FT MYERS FL        X  X  X  9  9
MUHA 230N 824W     X  X  4 13 17   VENICE FL          X  X  X  8  8
MUAN 219N 850W     X  X  X 11 11   TAMPA FL           X  X  X  5  5
MMCZ 205N 869W     X  X  X  4  4   CEDAR KEY FL       X  X  X  3  3
MYSM 241N 745W     X  X  1  1  2   GULF 29N 85W       X  X  X  2  2
MYEG 235N 758W     X  X  4  3  7

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM FRI TO  2AM SAT
C FROM  2AM SAT TO  2PM SAT
D FROM  2PM SAT TO  2PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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