[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 091747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU 09 SEP 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN...AT 09/1500 UTC...WAS NEAR 14.5N
71.4W OR ABOUT 430 MILES SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
OR NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC OR MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE CENTER FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. THE EYE
IS CLEARLY DEFINED. IT IS LOCATED E OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IVAN SHOULD
REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WNW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE
AND WELL-ESTABLISHED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 31W/32W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 TO 15
KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG S OF 18N ALONG 48W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 44W
AND 52W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 95W S
OF 19N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 22N W OF 94W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ 12N17W 6N35W 9N47W 12N67W AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG
11N75W 9N80W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N TO 14N
E OF 20W TO COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL GLFMEX EXTENDING SWD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR W OF THE TROUGH
SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NW GULF. SURFACE TROUGH
FROM NW FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W TO 23N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS ON HURRICANE IVAN. MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH W OF IVAN EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR 16N81W...THROUGH CONTINUES SW TO COSTA RICA.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE SCALE RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES MOST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLC FROM FLORIDA NEWD ALONG THE U.S. E COAST. MID ATLC TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO 25N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N TO 29N
BETWEEN 44W AND 56W. MID/UPPER LEVER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC E OF
45W. THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC DURING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 35W-50W IS PRODUCING DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW...A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ITCZ/TROPICAL WAVE
CONVECTION. FURTHER W. A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 52W
IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO ITS WEST SUPPRESSING ITCZ
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY W.

$$
DGS



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