[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT45 KNHC 091432
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STRIPPED THE DEPRESSION OF ALL DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REVERSE IN A DAY OR SO IT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER 25C WATER IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING
CONVECTION EXCEPT IN SHORT SPURTS.  DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/5...AND
IT WILL PROBABLY SLOW FURTHER NOW THAT IT IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE REMNANT CLOUD SWIRL WILL
BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      09/1500Z 36.6N  33.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 37.0N  32.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 37.0N  31.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.5N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 36.0N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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