[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 091153
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...CONTINUES
TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.7 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES...735 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE
TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 919 MB...27.14
INCHES ABOUT TWO HOURS...BUT IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND IT IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 70.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

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