[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT34 KNHC 090857
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AS IT
HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  70.0 WEST OR ABOUT  535
MILES... 860 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...IVAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY A
LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS  921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 70.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


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